The main currencies pairs traded in relatively narrow ranges with the dollar slightly firmer. Softer than expected German inflation data for December weighed on the euro, which is trading at around $1.1680 against the US currency this morning and so not far off Monday’s low of $1.1660. Sterling is off its best levels against the dollar (of circa $1.3570), trading just under $1.35. EURGBP is little changed from yesterday morning’s levels as it continues to hover around the £0.8650 mark. Meanwhile, following developments in Venezuela over the weekend, Donald Trump says the country will be ‘turning over’ up to 50m barrels of oil to the US, which will be sold at ‘its market price’. The US administration also says it is discussing a range of options for ‘acquiring’ Greenland, including using the US military (an ominous but probably not immediate threat).
Yesterday’s Events
Euro area government bond yields edged down on the back of the German inflation data, falling by around 3bps or so. UK yields were also slightly lower on the day, while US yields ended flat to marginally higher. In equity markets, US stocks advanced further with the Dow Jones again leading the way, up around 1%, while the Stoxx Europe 600 closed higher for a third consecutive session, adding about 0.6%. However, with the recent rally in Asian stocks running out of steam overnight, European indices are slightly lower at the open today. Meanwhile, in the oil market, prices have been jumping around a bit, albeit within fairly narrow ranges, with Brent crude back down at around $60 per barrel this morning.
Ahead of this morning’s inflation data for the Euro area, inflation in Germany came in a good deal lower than expected in December according to yesterday’s flash readings. Headline inflation fell to 2% last month based on the EU-harmonised measure, down from 2.6% in November, and to 1.8% from 2.3% based on the national measure. A breakdown of the latter shows energy and food inflation both fell in December, while core inflation (i.e. excluding food and energy) was also lower, driven by a decline in goods inflation with services inflation unchanged (at 3.5%) for a second month in a row.
The Day Ahead
For today, as well as the Euro area inflation data for December, US releases include the ISM services index for December and the ADP employment (December) and JOLTS (November) reports, the latter covering job openings, hiring and layoffs.
Today's Talking Points 07.01.2026
Market Commentary
The main currencies pairs traded in relatively narrow ranges with the dollar slightly firmer. Softer than expected German inflation data for December weighed on the euro, which is trading at around $1.1680 against the US currency this morning and so not far off Monday’s low of $1.1660. Sterling is off its best levels against the dollar (of circa $1.3570), trading just under $1.35. EURGBP is little changed from yesterday morning’s levels as it continues to hover around the £0.8650 mark. Meanwhile, following developments in Venezuela over the weekend, Donald Trump says the country will be ‘turning over’ up to 50m barrels of oil to the US, which will be sold at ‘its market price’. The US administration also says it is discussing a range of options for ‘acquiring’ Greenland, including using the US military (an ominous but probably not immediate threat).
Yesterday’s Events
Euro area government bond yields edged down on the back of the German inflation data, falling by around 3bps or so. UK yields were also slightly lower on the day, while US yields ended flat to marginally higher. In equity markets, US stocks advanced further with the Dow Jones again leading the way, up around 1%, while the Stoxx Europe 600 closed higher for a third consecutive session, adding about 0.6%. However, with the recent rally in Asian stocks running out of steam overnight, European indices are slightly lower at the open today. Meanwhile, in the oil market, prices have been jumping around a bit, albeit within fairly narrow ranges, with Brent crude back down at around $60 per barrel this morning.
Ahead of this morning’s inflation data for the Euro area, inflation in Germany came in a good deal lower than expected in December according to yesterday’s flash readings. Headline inflation fell to 2% last month based on the EU-harmonised measure, down from 2.6% in November, and to 1.8% from 2.3% based on the national measure. A breakdown of the latter shows energy and food inflation both fell in December, while core inflation (i.e. excluding food and energy) was also lower, driven by a decline in goods inflation with services inflation unchanged (at 3.5%) for a second month in a row.
The Day Ahead
For today, as well as the Euro area inflation data for December, US releases include the ISM services index for December and the ADP employment (December) and JOLTS (November) reports, the latter covering job openings, hiring and layoffs.
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