The euro and sterling held in reasonably well against the dollar notwithstanding elevated oil prices, rising bond yields, and soft equity markets. They are trading at around $1.17 and $1.35 respectively this morning, off lows yesterday of circa $1.1675 and $1.3465, while EURGBP is marginally firmer at £0.8670. The Fed announces its latest interest rate decision later today. It is almost certain to keep policy on hold and may indicate steady rates ahead as it balances upside risks to inflation but also downside risks to growth and employment. The market is currently pricing in essentially unchanged rates for the remainder of this year.
Yesterdays Events
Government bond yields backed up further as oil prices rose above $110 a barrel, led by the short-end of curves with 2-year yields increasing by 4-8bps across the main markets. Oil prices are heading further north this morning (Brent is at $112 p/b) on reports that Trump has told his officials to prepare for a lengthy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Equity markets were on the back foot again yesterday, with European and US stocks shedding about a half a percent or so.
Euro area consumer inflation expectations for 1-year and 3-years ahead “increased significantly” in March according to the ECB’s latest survey, rising to 4.0% and 3.5% respectively from 2.5% for both in February, while 5-year ahead expectations “increased slightly” to 2.4% from 2.3%. At the same time, expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months “became more negative, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time increased.”
The Day Ahead
For the day ahead, as well as the Fed policy announcement, the Bank of Canada decides on rates also (expected to stay on hold), while economic data due include a flash reading for inflation in Germany in April (likely to have increased further this month); the Economic Sentiment Indicator for April and money supply/credit growth for March in the Euro area; and housing starts, capital goods orders and the trade balance (all for March) in the US.
Author: Feidhlim Glennon
Tel: 1800 30 30 03 / +353 (0)1 790 0000
28 Apr 2026
Todays Talking Points 28.04.26
Market Commentary
Bond yields edged higher again yesterday, extending last week’s increase, amid rising oil prices (Brent crude is approaching $111 p/b this morning), while equity markets were under pressure for the most part. In FX, the euro and sterling both advanced against the dollar for a time, reaching intra-day highs of about $1.1755 and $1.3575 respectively, but couldn’t manage to hold their gains. They are trading at around $1.17 and $1.35 this morning, while EURGBP is a little softer at about £0.8655, still within the range of £0.86 to £0.88 that has prevailed so far this year. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged overnight but a sizeable minority voted for a hike, with the yen a touch firmer against the dollar as a result.
Yesterdays Events
Government bond yields rose further, increasing by about 3-7bps across the main markets. UK bonds continued to underperform, which saw 10-year yields knocking on the door of 5% again (their multi-year high reached late last month). In equity markets, European stocks shed almost half a percent, extending last week’s decline, while US indices had a mixed session, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq chalking up small gains but the Dow Jones ending in the red for the day.
The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged (0.75%) at its monetary policy meeting overnight. However, three (of nine) members preferred an immediate 25bps increase in rates, citing upside risks to inflation. The Bank raised its forecasts for inflation and lowered its projections for economic growth, mainly on account of the fall-out from the conflict in the Middle East.
According to the ECB, the war in the Middle East “has significantly increased firms’ selling price and input cost expectations” but has not affected their wage expectations. It latest survey of enterprises (SAFE) reports that selling prices are expected to rise by 3.5% on average over the next 12 months, up from 2.9% in the previous survey round, while non-labour input costs, including energy, are expected to increase by 5.8%, up from 3.6%. By contrast, wage expectations “moderated slightly” and are expected to increase by 2.8%, down from 3.1% in the previous quarter.
The Day Ahead
For the day ahead, the Fed begins its two-day monetary policy meeting later, while economic data due include the ADP weekly employment report and the Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence for April in the US and the ECB’s survey of consumer inflation expectations for March in the Euro area.
Author: Feidhlim Glennon
Tel: 1800 30 30 03 / +353 (0)1 790 0000
27 Apr 2026
Todays Talking Points 27.04.26
Market Commentary
Oil prices are heading higher this morning after the “no talks” show between the US and Iran over the weekend – there was growing optimism on Friday that face-to-face negotiations would take place – with Brent crude now just shy of $108 per barrel. The euro and sterling though are still holding onto the gains they made against the dollar at the end of last week, trading at about $1.1730 and $1.3540 respectively (leaving EURGBP unchanged at about £0.8660). Meanwhile, the Fed, ECB and Bank of England all announce interest rate decisions this week. While all three are almost certain to keep rates on hold, they will reiterate that they are continuing to closely monitor the fall-out from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly heightened inflation risks.
Yesterdays Events
Government bond yields backed up last week overall, notably at the short-end of curves. UK bonds underperformed with 2-year yields rising by the best part of 25bps, while equivalent German and US yields increased by circa 15bps and10bps respectively. In equity markets, the S&P 500 closed at a new record high on Friday, on the back of gains of almost 1%, while European stocks ended marginally lower on the day (and underperformed on the week, shedding between 2.5% and 3%).
German business confidence fell in April to its lowest level since May 2020 (in the midst of the pandemic) according to the latest ifo index published on Friday. Companies were ‘considerably more pessimistic’ about the outlook for the coming months, while their assessment of current business conditions worsened again this month.
The Day Ahead
Looking to the week ahead, as well as the round of central bank meetings, there are some notable economic data releases scheduled, including a flash estimate of Euro area inflation for April on Thursday (with headline inflation expected to have picked up further this month to 3.0%) and preliminary estimates of Euro area and US GDP growth in the first quarter of this year, also on Thursday.
Author: Feidhlim Glennon
Tel: 1800 30 30 03 / +353 (0)1 790 0000
24 Apr 2026
Todays Talking Points 24.04.26
Market Commentary
There’s no respite it seems from rising oil prices with Brent crude now north of $105 per barrel, up around $15 on the week and not far shy of where it was just before the original US-Iran ceasefire was announced on April 7th. Trump has announced a 3-week extension to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, but that may not provide much reassurance for markets. In FX, the dollar continues to nudge higher with EURUSD and GBPUSD trading at around $1.1680 and $1.3460 respectively this morning, leaving EURGBP at about £0.8675.
Yesterdays Events
Market expectations for central bank rates have become more pessimistic again over this past week, particularly so for the ECB and Bank of England. Though both are expected to stay on hold at next week’s round of monetary policy meetings, they are now seen hiking by 65bps and 60bps in total this year respectively, an increase of circa 25bps and 35bps relative to what was priced in at the end of last week. That this has occurred as oil prices have backed up sharply again is no surprise, as rate expectations have been moving closely in line with oil prices since the war in Iran began.
The Composite PMI for the Euro area fell below the key 50 level in April (47.6) for the first time since the end of 2024, on the face of it pointing to a small decline in GDP in the zone. The equivalent measures for the UK and US ticked up this month (both coming in at 52.0), pointing to modest growth in economic activity. All three surveys reported rising input and output price pressures across manufacturing and services.
Retail sales volumes in the UK rose by 0.7% in March according to official data published a short while ago, reversing a fall of 0.6% that occurred in February. For the first quarter of the year as a whole, volumes rose by 1.6% from the final quarter of last year and were up more than 2.5% on the corresponding quarter in 2025. Separately, consumer confidence fell to a more than 2.5 year low this month according to GfK, which noted that “everyone is grappling with rapid price rises, especially at the fuel pumps, which are taking a dent out of household budgets, and people know further price hikes are coming.”
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet end to the week in terms of economic data, with Germany’s IFO business climate index for April and the University of Michigan’s final reading for US consumer confidence this month the only releases of note.
Author: Feidhlim Glennon
Tel: 1800 30 30 03 / +353 (0)1 790 0000
23 Apr 2026
Todays Talking Points 23.04.26
Market Commentary
Oil prices headed north yesterday notwithstanding the extension of the ceasefire – with Brent crude moving back up above $100 p/b as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a mess – putting upward pressure on bond yields, while European equity markets ended lower for a third day running. The euro lost ground to the dollar, falling to around $1.17, and has now shed more than a cent from its best levels towards the end of last week. Sterling has held in better against the dollar albeit still slipping back below $1.35, and has firmed to around £0.8675 versus the euro, with the pound seemingly supported by higher (relative) UK yields.
Yesterdays Events
Short-dated UK yields rose by around 6bps yesterday, taking the increase so far this week to more than 20bps, while US and German yields ticked up by 2-3bps, leaving them 10-15bps higher week-to-date. European equities shed almost half a percent, the third consecutive day of losses. US indices, in contrast, ended in the black, with the S&P 500 closing at another new all-time high, although the futures market points to a weak opening later today.
Flash PMI data for France released a short while ago were softer than expected. The composite index fell further below the key 50 in April to its lowest level (47.6) in more than a year, dragged down by a further decline in activity in the services sector of the economy.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane says “no one really knows how long the situation (in the Middle East) will last, and I doubt we’re going to have clarity on that” by the time of next week’s monetary policy meeting (pointing to unchanged rates), adding that “until we know more about how long this war is going to last, it is really hard to know whether this is going to prove to be a temporary phase or a much bigger shock to the European economy.”
The Day Ahead
For the day ahead, economic data due include flash PMIs for April in the Euro area, UK and the US, while the regular weekly jobless claims report is due in the US also.
Dealer Comments
Todays Talking Points 29.04.26
Market Commentary
The euro and sterling held in reasonably well against the dollar notwithstanding elevated oil prices, rising bond yields, and soft equity markets. They are trading at around $1.17 and $1.35 respectively this morning, off lows yesterday of circa $1.1675 and $1.3465, while EURGBP is marginally firmer at £0.8670. The Fed announces its latest interest rate decision later today. It is almost certain to keep policy on hold and may indicate steady rates ahead as it balances upside risks to inflation but also downside risks to growth and employment. The market is currently pricing in essentially unchanged rates for the remainder of this year.
Yesterdays Events
Government bond yields backed up further as oil prices rose above $110 a barrel, led by the short-end of curves with 2-year yields increasing by 4-8bps across the main markets. Oil prices are heading further north this morning (Brent is at $112 p/b) on reports that Trump has told his officials to prepare for a lengthy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Equity markets were on the back foot again yesterday, with European and US stocks shedding about a half a percent or so.
Euro area consumer inflation expectations for 1-year and 3-years ahead “increased significantly” in March according to the ECB’s latest survey, rising to 4.0% and 3.5% respectively from 2.5% for both in February, while 5-year ahead expectations “increased slightly” to 2.4% from 2.3%. At the same time, expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months “became more negative, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time increased.”
The Day Ahead
For the day ahead, as well as the Fed policy announcement, the Bank of Canada decides on rates also (expected to stay on hold), while economic data due include a flash reading for inflation in Germany in April (likely to have increased further this month); the Economic Sentiment Indicator for April and money supply/credit growth for March in the Euro area; and housing starts, capital goods orders and the trade balance (all for March) in the US.
28 Apr 2026
Todays Talking Points 28.04.26
Market Commentary
Bond yields edged higher again yesterday, extending last week’s increase, amid rising oil prices (Brent crude is approaching $111 p/b this morning), while equity markets were under pressure for the most part. In FX, the euro and sterling both advanced against the dollar for a time, reaching intra-day highs of about $1.1755 and $1.3575 respectively, but couldn’t manage to hold their gains. They are trading at around $1.17 and $1.35 this morning, while EURGBP is a little softer at about £0.8655, still within the range of £0.86 to £0.88 that has prevailed so far this year. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged overnight but a sizeable minority voted for a hike, with the yen a touch firmer against the dollar as a result.
Yesterdays Events
Government bond yields rose further, increasing by about 3-7bps across the main markets. UK bonds continued to underperform, which saw 10-year yields knocking on the door of 5% again (their multi-year high reached late last month). In equity markets, European stocks shed almost half a percent, extending last week’s decline, while US indices had a mixed session, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq chalking up small gains but the Dow Jones ending in the red for the day.
The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged (0.75%) at its monetary policy meeting overnight. However, three (of nine) members preferred an immediate 25bps increase in rates, citing upside risks to inflation. The Bank raised its forecasts for inflation and lowered its projections for economic growth, mainly on account of the fall-out from the conflict in the Middle East.
According to the ECB, the war in the Middle East “has significantly increased firms’ selling price and input cost expectations” but has not affected their wage expectations. It latest survey of enterprises (SAFE) reports that selling prices are expected to rise by 3.5% on average over the next 12 months, up from 2.9% in the previous survey round, while non-labour input costs, including energy, are expected to increase by 5.8%, up from 3.6%. By contrast, wage expectations “moderated slightly” and are expected to increase by 2.8%, down from 3.1% in the previous quarter.
The Day Ahead
For the day ahead, the Fed begins its two-day monetary policy meeting later, while economic data due include the ADP weekly employment report and the Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence for April in the US and the ECB’s survey of consumer inflation expectations for March in the Euro area.
27 Apr 2026
Todays Talking Points 27.04.26
Market Commentary
Oil prices are heading higher this morning after the “no talks” show between the US and Iran over the weekend – there was growing optimism on Friday that face-to-face negotiations would take place – with Brent crude now just shy of $108 per barrel. The euro and sterling though are still holding onto the gains they made against the dollar at the end of last week, trading at about $1.1730 and $1.3540 respectively (leaving EURGBP unchanged at about £0.8660). Meanwhile, the Fed, ECB and Bank of England all announce interest rate decisions this week. While all three are almost certain to keep rates on hold, they will reiterate that they are continuing to closely monitor the fall-out from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly heightened inflation risks.
Yesterdays Events
Government bond yields backed up last week overall, notably at the short-end of curves. UK bonds underperformed with 2-year yields rising by the best part of 25bps, while equivalent German and US yields increased by circa 15bps and10bps respectively. In equity markets, the S&P 500 closed at a new record high on Friday, on the back of gains of almost 1%, while European stocks ended marginally lower on the day (and underperformed on the week, shedding between 2.5% and 3%).
German business confidence fell in April to its lowest level since May 2020 (in the midst of the pandemic) according to the latest ifo index published on Friday. Companies were ‘considerably more pessimistic’ about the outlook for the coming months, while their assessment of current business conditions worsened again this month.
The Day Ahead
Looking to the week ahead, as well as the round of central bank meetings, there are some notable economic data releases scheduled, including a flash estimate of Euro area inflation for April on Thursday (with headline inflation expected to have picked up further this month to 3.0%) and preliminary estimates of Euro area and US GDP growth in the first quarter of this year, also on Thursday.
24 Apr 2026
Todays Talking Points 24.04.26
Market Commentary
There’s no respite it seems from rising oil prices with Brent crude now north of $105 per barrel, up around $15 on the week and not far shy of where it was just before the original US-Iran ceasefire was announced on April 7th. Trump has announced a 3-week extension to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, but that may not provide much reassurance for markets. In FX, the dollar continues to nudge higher with EURUSD and GBPUSD trading at around $1.1680 and $1.3460 respectively this morning, leaving EURGBP at about £0.8675.
Yesterdays Events
Market expectations for central bank rates have become more pessimistic again over this past week, particularly so for the ECB and Bank of England. Though both are expected to stay on hold at next week’s round of monetary policy meetings, they are now seen hiking by 65bps and 60bps in total this year respectively, an increase of circa 25bps and 35bps relative to what was priced in at the end of last week. That this has occurred as oil prices have backed up sharply again is no surprise, as rate expectations have been moving closely in line with oil prices since the war in Iran began.
The Composite PMI for the Euro area fell below the key 50 level in April (47.6) for the first time since the end of 2024, on the face of it pointing to a small decline in GDP in the zone. The equivalent measures for the UK and US ticked up this month (both coming in at 52.0), pointing to modest growth in economic activity. All three surveys reported rising input and output price pressures across manufacturing and services.
Retail sales volumes in the UK rose by 0.7% in March according to official data published a short while ago, reversing a fall of 0.6% that occurred in February. For the first quarter of the year as a whole, volumes rose by 1.6% from the final quarter of last year and were up more than 2.5% on the corresponding quarter in 2025. Separately, consumer confidence fell to a more than 2.5 year low this month according to GfK, which noted that “everyone is grappling with rapid price rises, especially at the fuel pumps, which are taking a dent out of household budgets, and people know further price hikes are coming.”
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet end to the week in terms of economic data, with Germany’s IFO business climate index for April and the University of Michigan’s final reading for US consumer confidence this month the only releases of note.
23 Apr 2026
Todays Talking Points 23.04.26
Market Commentary
Oil prices headed north yesterday notwithstanding the extension of the ceasefire – with Brent crude moving back up above $100 p/b as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a mess – putting upward pressure on bond yields, while European equity markets ended lower for a third day running. The euro lost ground to the dollar, falling to around $1.17, and has now shed more than a cent from its best levels towards the end of last week. Sterling has held in better against the dollar albeit still slipping back below $1.35, and has firmed to around £0.8675 versus the euro, with the pound seemingly supported by higher (relative) UK yields.
Yesterdays Events
Short-dated UK yields rose by around 6bps yesterday, taking the increase so far this week to more than 20bps, while US and German yields ticked up by 2-3bps, leaving them 10-15bps higher week-to-date. European equities shed almost half a percent, the third consecutive day of losses. US indices, in contrast, ended in the black, with the S&P 500 closing at another new all-time high, although the futures market points to a weak opening later today.
Flash PMI data for France released a short while ago were softer than expected. The composite index fell further below the key 50 in April to its lowest level (47.6) in more than a year, dragged down by a further decline in activity in the services sector of the economy.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane says “no one really knows how long the situation (in the Middle East) will last, and I doubt we’re going to have clarity on that” by the time of next week’s monetary policy meeting (pointing to unchanged rates), adding that “until we know more about how long this war is going to last, it is really hard to know whether this is going to prove to be a temporary phase or a much bigger shock to the European economy.”
The Day Ahead
For the day ahead, economic data due include flash PMIs for April in the Euro area, UK and the US, while the regular weekly jobless claims report is due in the US also.