If the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday was a ‘hawkish’ cut, sending the dollar higher, yesterday’s Bank of England MPC interest rate decision was a ‘dovish’ hold, sending sterling lower against the US currency and causing it to reverse course against the euro. The MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates at 4.75%, with the three dissenters favouring a 25bps cut. The narrower than expected vote (8-1 was thought more likely) weighed on the pound, which has declined further against the dollar to around $1.25 and retreated from a fresh multi-year high of around £0.8220 vis-à-vis the euro before the MPC announcement to trade at £0.83 this morning (with softer than expected UK retail sales data released a short while ago not helping). The euro remains under pressure against the dollar, trading at about $1.0390 having fallen close to its year-to-date low ($1.0335) during yesterday’s session. Later today, PCE inflation data for November are released in the US, which will be of interest given the Fed’s upward revision to the inflation outlook in its latest projections.
Yesterday’s Events
US government 10-year bond yields continued their post-Fed meeting ascent yesterday, rising to 4.55%, though 2-year yields nudged down a little. UK 2-year yields also fell slightly following the BoE rate announcement, but 10-year yields ended higher on the day, as did both German 2- and 10-year yields. In equity markets, US stocks ended broadly flat following Wednesday’s sharp fall, while European stocks shed almost 2%.
Retail sales volumes in the UK rose by 0.2% in November, only partially reversing October’s fall of 0.7%. Over the three months to November, volumes were up 0.3% on the three months to August and 1.9% higher than in the September-November period in 2023.
ECB member Nagel says the central bank “can certainly lower interest rates a little further… reaching a neutral level” in the first half of 2025, adding that the ECB now has “price increases well under control (with) wage pressures also easing across the entire currency area.”
The Day Ahead
Today’s PCE inflation data in the US are expected to show headline and core consumer prices both rose by 0.2% in November, according to the consensus forecast, which would push the annual inflation rates up to 2.5% and 2.9% respectively from 2.3% and 2.8% in October. Other data due today include a final reading for US consumer confidence in December and a first reading for December consumer confidence in the Euro area.
Author: Brian Tim Moore
Tel: 1800 30 30 03 / +353 (0)1 790 0000
19 Dec 2024
Today's Talking Points 19.12.2024
Market Commentary
The Fed lowered interest rates by 25bps at yesterday’s meeting, as expected, and guided a further 50bps reduction in 2025, less than the 100bps it had previously indicated – reflecting a firmer inflation forecast for next year – but in line with market pricing ahead of the meeting. However the market now believes it’s more or less a case of one more 25bps cut and the Fed is done, prompting a spike in US bond yields and an accompanying jump in the dollar, with higher yields also triggering a sharp sell-off in US equity markets. The euro and sterling are down around a cent against the dollar from their pre-meeting levels at $1.04 and just over $1.26 respectively (albeit off their immediate post-meeting lows of $1.0350 and $1.2560), leaving EURGBP a little lower this morning £0.8240. Next up it’s the Bank of England – it is expected to keep rates on hold at 4.75% today and is likely to reiterate that a ‘gradual’ approach to lowering them remains appropriate.
Yesterday’s Events
US government bonds yields rose sharply post the Fed rate decision, ending the day 10bps to 15bps higher across the curve (benchmark 10-year yields are now at a circa 7-month high of just over 4.5%), while not surprisingly German and UK yields have risen this morning. US stocks sold off heavily, shedding 2.5% to 3.5% on the day, while European markets are down more than 1% at the start of play today.
The Fed’s 25bps rate cut brings the cumulative reduction since last September to 100bps. As a result, the stance of monetary policy is now ‘significantly less restrictive’ (albeit still ‘meaningfully restrictive’) according to the Fed, hence it can be ‘more cautious’ as it considers additional policy adjustments, with the ‘extent and timing’ of further rate cuts depending in part on continuing progress in lowering inflation.
The Day Ahead
For the day ahead, the focus will be on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) latest interest rate decision. It is expected to stay on hold at 4.75%, following last month’s quarter-point reduction. In its November economic projections, the MPC revised up forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in the short-term, largely on account of the measures announced in the autumn budget. Inflation was expected to rise to 2.8% over the second half of 2025 before falling back to the 2% target over the following two years. This was conditioned, among other things, on interest rates declining to 3.75% by the end of 2025, pointing to a gradual reduction in rates during the course of next year. The market though has pared back expectations for rate cuts following this week’s stronger than expected wage growth data and now sees the MPC lowering rates by just 50bps in 2025.
Meanwhile, it is quiet on the economic data front, with the regular weekly jobless claims and a third estimate of third-quarter GDP growth in the US the only releases of note.
Author: Brian Tim Moore
Tel: 1800 30 30 03 / +353 (0)1 790 0000
18 Dec 2024
Today's Talking Points 18.12.2024
Market Commentary
Sterling remained on the front foot yesterday following the release of firmer than expected UK wage growth data, which saw the market pare back expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts next year. This morning’s CPI inflation data in the UK were broadly in line with the consensus forecast, leaving the pound trading at around $1.2690 against the dollar and at £0.8270 vis-a-vis the euro. The latter is little changed against the US currency as it continues to hover around the $1.05 level. The Fed concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting later today – it is expected to lower its key policy rate by another 25bps, to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, so the interest will be in what it signals about the likely scale of rate cuts in 2025.
Yesterday’s Events
UK government bond yields jumped yesterday – by the best part of 10bps in the case of both 2-and 10-year yields – as the market reassessed the outlook for BoE rates, which it now sees being cut by circa 50bps next year, down from circa 75bps before the latest wage growth numbers. Elsewhere, US and German yields were flat to marginally lower on the day, as they continued to tread water ahead of the Fed meeting.
This morning’s CPI data in the UK were broadly in line with expectations. The headline rate of inflation picked up for a second month running in November, reaching 2.6%, while core inflation nudged up to 3.5%, with core goods inflation rising to 1.1% but core services inflation remaining at 5%. The further increase in overall inflation last month will not have come as a surprise to the BoE, unlike perhaps the latest wage growth data (the BoE will have more to say about this following tomorrow’s monetary policy meeting).
Yesterday’s economic data in the US were a mixed bag. Headline retail sales in November were stronger than expected, rising by 0.7% in value terms from October, while manufacturing output rebounded by less than expected last month, increasing by 0.2% after a fall of 0.7% in October, leaving it 1% below year-earlier levels.
The Day Ahead
Regarding today’s Fed interest rate decision, it looks set to cut its key policy rate by another 25bps to 4.25%-4.5%. This would bring the cumulative reduction since it started lowering rates in September to 100bps, in line with the “guidance” it provided in its Summary of Economic Projections at that time. The latter showed the Fed expected to cut rates by another 100bps (to 3.25%-3.5%) in 2025, though this may be pared back in its updated projections in light of firmer than expected economic growth and inflation lately.
On the economic data front today, a final CPI inflation reading for November and construction output are due in the Euro area, while housing starts and building permits are scheduled in the US.
Author: Brian Tim Moore
Tel: 1800 30 30 03 / +353 (0)1 790 0000
17 Dec 2024
Today's Talking Points 17.12.2024
Market Commentary
The euro traded in a narrow range of about a quarter of cent either side of $1.05 against the dollar during yesterday’s session and is hovering just below $1.05 this morning. Sterling has regained ground, after sliding over the latter part of last week, and is currently trading just shy of $1.27 against the dollar and at £0.8270 vis-a vis the euro, supported by stronger than expected UK wage growth data released earlier this morning.
Yesterday’s Events
Government bonds yields were little changed yesterday, ending marginally lower overall. European equity markets continued to give up some of their recent gains, shedding almost 0.5%, while in the US the Nasdaq as a notable outperformer, gaining more than 1% to close at a new all-time high, with the S&P 500 closing about 0.4% higher on the day.
The latest labour market report in the UK shows the annual rate of growth in regular weekly earnings re-accelerated to 5.2% in the three months to October from an upwardly revised 4.9% in the three months to September, with the y-o-y increase in private sector earnings picking up to 5.4% from 4.9%. The data will reinforce the Bank of England’s “gradual” approach to lowering interest rates, notwithstanding signs that the economy has lost momentum recently following strong growth over the first half of this year.
The Euro area economy contracted again in December judging by the latest PMI data, although at a slower pace than in November. The composite index remained below the key 50 level but rose to 49.5 (from 48.3), led by a notable jump in the services index which increased to 51.4 (from 49.5 in November).
In a speech yesterday, ECB president Christine Lagarde said “the current (monetary) policy stance is restrictive (but) if the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline (forecast), the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further”. She also noted downside risks to inflation related to “weaker-than-expected growth and the increased uncertainty surrounding growth triggered by geopolitical events.”
The Day Ahead
Looking to the day ahead, there are a number of US economic data releases due including retail sales and industrial production for November and the housing market index for December.
Author: Brian Tim Moore
Tel: 1800 30 30 03 / +353 (0)1 790 0000
16 Dec 2024
Today's Talking Points 16.12.2024
Market Commentary
The euro dipped to a low for the week of about $1.0450 during Friday’s session but is trading just north of $1.05 this morning. Sterling finished close to its low for the week on Friday and is just a touch firmer at $1.2630 at the start of play today. EURGBP fell to a multi-year low of £0.8220 mid-week but has since regained about a penny to trade at £0.8320. Looking to the week ahead, the Fed and Bank of England announce interest rate decisions on Wednesday and Thursday respectively with the former expected to cut by 25bps to 4.25%-4.5% and the latter seen staying on hold at 4.75%.
Yesterday’s Events
Government bond yields backed up further on Friday. German 2- and 10-year yields both rose by around 5bps, bringing the cumulative increase post Thursday’s ECB meeting to about 12bps, while equivalent US and UK yields also rose by around 5bps at the end of week. Higher bond yields weighed on equities, with European and US stocks ending flat on Friday and slightly lower on the week overall.
ECB member Makhlouf said on Friday that while “the direction of travel on interest rates is clear…the exact pace and number of further reductions depends on inflation outturns continuing to move in line with our projection,” adding that “as the short-run outlook for inflation becomes more stable…the factors that affect economic growth will come to the fore in future policy debates.”
Industrial production in the Euro area was flat in October and was running more than 0.5% below its level in Q3, suggesting this sector will continue to act as a drag on economic growth in the final quarter of the year.
The Day Ahead
There is a heavy schedule of economic data this week. This includes today’s flash PMIs for December in the main economies; retail sales and industrial production in the US on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively; and the latest labour market (Tuesday), CPI inflation (Wednesday) and retail sales (Friday) reports in the UK.
Dealer Comments
Today's Talking Points 20.12.2024
Market Commentary
If the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday was a ‘hawkish’ cut, sending the dollar higher, yesterday’s Bank of England MPC interest rate decision was a ‘dovish’ hold, sending sterling lower against the US currency and causing it to reverse course against the euro. The MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates at 4.75%, with the three dissenters favouring a 25bps cut. The narrower than expected vote (8-1 was thought more likely) weighed on the pound, which has declined further against the dollar to around $1.25 and retreated from a fresh multi-year high of around £0.8220 vis-à-vis the euro before the MPC announcement to trade at £0.83 this morning (with softer than expected UK retail sales data released a short while ago not helping). The euro remains under pressure against the dollar, trading at about $1.0390 having fallen close to its year-to-date low ($1.0335) during yesterday’s session. Later today, PCE inflation data for November are released in the US, which will be of interest given the Fed’s upward revision to the inflation outlook in its latest projections.
Yesterday’s Events
US government 10-year bond yields continued their post-Fed meeting ascent yesterday, rising to 4.55%, though 2-year yields nudged down a little. UK 2-year yields also fell slightly following the BoE rate announcement, but 10-year yields ended higher on the day, as did both German 2- and 10-year yields. In equity markets, US stocks ended broadly flat following Wednesday’s sharp fall, while European stocks shed almost 2%.
Retail sales volumes in the UK rose by 0.2% in November, only partially reversing October’s fall of 0.7%. Over the three months to November, volumes were up 0.3% on the three months to August and 1.9% higher than in the September-November period in 2023.
ECB member Nagel says the central bank “can certainly lower interest rates a little further… reaching a neutral level” in the first half of 2025, adding that the ECB now has “price increases well under control (with) wage pressures also easing across the entire currency area.”
The Day Ahead
Today’s PCE inflation data in the US are expected to show headline and core consumer prices both rose by 0.2% in November, according to the consensus forecast, which would push the annual inflation rates up to 2.5% and 2.9% respectively from 2.3% and 2.8% in October. Other data due today include a final reading for US consumer confidence in December and a first reading for December consumer confidence in the Euro area.
19 Dec 2024
Today's Talking Points 19.12.2024
Market Commentary
The Fed lowered interest rates by 25bps at yesterday’s meeting, as expected, and guided a further 50bps reduction in 2025, less than the 100bps it had previously indicated – reflecting a firmer inflation forecast for next year – but in line with market pricing ahead of the meeting. However the market now believes it’s more or less a case of one more 25bps cut and the Fed is done, prompting a spike in US bond yields and an accompanying jump in the dollar, with higher yields also triggering a sharp sell-off in US equity markets. The euro and sterling are down around a cent against the dollar from their pre-meeting levels at $1.04 and just over $1.26 respectively (albeit off their immediate post-meeting lows of $1.0350 and $1.2560), leaving EURGBP a little lower this morning £0.8240. Next up it’s the Bank of England – it is expected to keep rates on hold at 4.75% today and is likely to reiterate that a ‘gradual’ approach to lowering them remains appropriate.
Yesterday’s Events
US government bonds yields rose sharply post the Fed rate decision, ending the day 10bps to 15bps higher across the curve (benchmark 10-year yields are now at a circa 7-month high of just over 4.5%), while not surprisingly German and UK yields have risen this morning. US stocks sold off heavily, shedding 2.5% to 3.5% on the day, while European markets are down more than 1% at the start of play today.
The Fed’s 25bps rate cut brings the cumulative reduction since last September to 100bps. As a result, the stance of monetary policy is now ‘significantly less restrictive’ (albeit still ‘meaningfully restrictive’) according to the Fed, hence it can be ‘more cautious’ as it considers additional policy adjustments, with the ‘extent and timing’ of further rate cuts depending in part on continuing progress in lowering inflation.
The Day Ahead
For the day ahead, the focus will be on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) latest interest rate decision. It is expected to stay on hold at 4.75%, following last month’s quarter-point reduction. In its November economic projections, the MPC revised up forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in the short-term, largely on account of the measures announced in the autumn budget. Inflation was expected to rise to 2.8% over the second half of 2025 before falling back to the 2% target over the following two years. This was conditioned, among other things, on interest rates declining to 3.75% by the end of 2025, pointing to a gradual reduction in rates during the course of next year. The market though has pared back expectations for rate cuts following this week’s stronger than expected wage growth data and now sees the MPC lowering rates by just 50bps in 2025.
Meanwhile, it is quiet on the economic data front, with the regular weekly jobless claims and a third estimate of third-quarter GDP growth in the US the only releases of note.
18 Dec 2024
Today's Talking Points 18.12.2024
Market Commentary
Sterling remained on the front foot yesterday following the release of firmer than expected UK wage growth data, which saw the market pare back expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts next year. This morning’s CPI inflation data in the UK were broadly in line with the consensus forecast, leaving the pound trading at around $1.2690 against the dollar and at £0.8270 vis-a-vis the euro. The latter is little changed against the US currency as it continues to hover around the $1.05 level. The Fed concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting later today – it is expected to lower its key policy rate by another 25bps, to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, so the interest will be in what it signals about the likely scale of rate cuts in 2025.
Yesterday’s Events
UK government bond yields jumped yesterday – by the best part of 10bps in the case of both 2-and 10-year yields – as the market reassessed the outlook for BoE rates, which it now sees being cut by circa 50bps next year, down from circa 75bps before the latest wage growth numbers. Elsewhere, US and German yields were flat to marginally lower on the day, as they continued to tread water ahead of the Fed meeting.
This morning’s CPI data in the UK were broadly in line with expectations. The headline rate of inflation picked up for a second month running in November, reaching 2.6%, while core inflation nudged up to 3.5%, with core goods inflation rising to 1.1% but core services inflation remaining at 5%. The further increase in overall inflation last month will not have come as a surprise to the BoE, unlike perhaps the latest wage growth data (the BoE will have more to say about this following tomorrow’s monetary policy meeting).
Yesterday’s economic data in the US were a mixed bag. Headline retail sales in November were stronger than expected, rising by 0.7% in value terms from October, while manufacturing output rebounded by less than expected last month, increasing by 0.2% after a fall of 0.7% in October, leaving it 1% below year-earlier levels.
The Day Ahead
Regarding today’s Fed interest rate decision, it looks set to cut its key policy rate by another 25bps to 4.25%-4.5%. This would bring the cumulative reduction since it started lowering rates in September to 100bps, in line with the “guidance” it provided in its Summary of Economic Projections at that time. The latter showed the Fed expected to cut rates by another 100bps (to 3.25%-3.5%) in 2025, though this may be pared back in its updated projections in light of firmer than expected economic growth and inflation lately.
On the economic data front today, a final CPI inflation reading for November and construction output are due in the Euro area, while housing starts and building permits are scheduled in the US.
17 Dec 2024
Today's Talking Points 17.12.2024
Market Commentary
The euro traded in a narrow range of about a quarter of cent either side of $1.05 against the dollar during yesterday’s session and is hovering just below $1.05 this morning. Sterling has regained ground, after sliding over the latter part of last week, and is currently trading just shy of $1.27 against the dollar and at £0.8270 vis-a vis the euro, supported by stronger than expected UK wage growth data released earlier this morning.
Yesterday’s Events
Government bonds yields were little changed yesterday, ending marginally lower overall. European equity markets continued to give up some of their recent gains, shedding almost 0.5%, while in the US the Nasdaq as a notable outperformer, gaining more than 1% to close at a new all-time high, with the S&P 500 closing about 0.4% higher on the day.
The latest labour market report in the UK shows the annual rate of growth in regular weekly earnings re-accelerated to 5.2% in the three months to October from an upwardly revised 4.9% in the three months to September, with the y-o-y increase in private sector earnings picking up to 5.4% from 4.9%. The data will reinforce the Bank of England’s “gradual” approach to lowering interest rates, notwithstanding signs that the economy has lost momentum recently following strong growth over the first half of this year.
The Euro area economy contracted again in December judging by the latest PMI data, although at a slower pace than in November. The composite index remained below the key 50 level but rose to 49.5 (from 48.3), led by a notable jump in the services index which increased to 51.4 (from 49.5 in November).
In a speech yesterday, ECB president Christine Lagarde said “the current (monetary) policy stance is restrictive (but) if the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline (forecast), the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further”. She also noted downside risks to inflation related to “weaker-than-expected growth and the increased uncertainty surrounding growth triggered by geopolitical events.”
The Day Ahead
Looking to the day ahead, there are a number of US economic data releases due including retail sales and industrial production for November and the housing market index for December.
16 Dec 2024
Today's Talking Points 16.12.2024
Market Commentary
The euro dipped to a low for the week of about $1.0450 during Friday’s session but is trading just north of $1.05 this morning. Sterling finished close to its low for the week on Friday and is just a touch firmer at $1.2630 at the start of play today. EURGBP fell to a multi-year low of £0.8220 mid-week but has since regained about a penny to trade at £0.8320. Looking to the week ahead, the Fed and Bank of England announce interest rate decisions on Wednesday and Thursday respectively with the former expected to cut by 25bps to 4.25%-4.5% and the latter seen staying on hold at 4.75%.
Yesterday’s Events
Government bond yields backed up further on Friday. German 2- and 10-year yields both rose by around 5bps, bringing the cumulative increase post Thursday’s ECB meeting to about 12bps, while equivalent US and UK yields also rose by around 5bps at the end of week. Higher bond yields weighed on equities, with European and US stocks ending flat on Friday and slightly lower on the week overall.
ECB member Makhlouf said on Friday that while “the direction of travel on interest rates is clear…the exact pace and number of further reductions depends on inflation outturns continuing to move in line with our projection,” adding that “as the short-run outlook for inflation becomes more stable…the factors that affect economic growth will come to the fore in future policy debates.”
Industrial production in the Euro area was flat in October and was running more than 0.5% below its level in Q3, suggesting this sector will continue to act as a drag on economic growth in the final quarter of the year.
The Day Ahead
There is a heavy schedule of economic data this week. This includes today’s flash PMIs for December in the main economies; retail sales and industrial production in the US on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively; and the latest labour market (Tuesday), CPI inflation (Wednesday) and retail sales (Friday) reports in the UK.