12th February 2019 – Sterling guidance from Bank of Ireland Markets & Treasury
EUR/GBP is currently trading at 0.8750 having already eclipsed the entire 2018 trading range in the first month of this year. The 5% rally in Sterling since December has reflected the market view that a No Deal scenario was overpriced by markets with EUR/GBP above 90p. Our base case remains and that is that we avoid a No Deal scenario on March 29th.

Analysing our probability-based estimates of the different Brexit scenarios, if we were to get the current deal – or something close to it – passed through the UK parliament, then we would expect to see a move towards the low 80’s in EUR/GBP. On the other hand a No Deal scenario will likely push EUR/GBP above the all-time high of 98p so currently the market is trading just below the middle of those estimates. Most market participants have a low probability for a No Deal scenario playing out and therefore we believe the risks for Sterling are not asymmetric at this stage. With a low probability assigned to a No Deal outcome, were this to occur then the move lower in Sterling would be far greater than the rally on a ‘soft-Brexit’ outcome.

The risks for Sterling are very much two-sided and although our base case is to avoid a No Deal scenario, we’re not complacent about the risks. Our message to businesses has been consistent, take the currency risk out of your business.

11th February 2019 – Brexit concerns see high rate of savers in border areas according to the latest Bank of Ireland/ESRI Investment Index. Read the article here and download latest index results here

4th February 2019 – Investment Markets Weekly – Keep up to date with the latest investment markets news and how Brexit is affecting them. Read more here

1st February 2019 – Article – Which sectors will be most impacted by Brexit? Read more here

1st February 2019 – Article – How can Bank of Ireland help you fund your preparations for Brexit? Read more here

1st February 2019 – Article – How can you prepare your business for Brexit? Read more here

25 January 2019 – Sterling strengthened to an 18 month high against the Euro ahead of next week’s parliamentary vote on PM May’s ‘Plan B’. The pound is now 5% stronger since December as financial markets continue to price out the chance of a No Deal scenario. For Irish businesses, sterling volatility has returned with this year’s trading range already larger than the entire 2018 range, and we expect that to continue.

Next week is likely to bring further volatility as Tuesday’s vote, and crucially the amendments to the bill, should see further moves in Sterling. Since December we’ve been highlighting the two-sided risks for Sterling to customers and given the 5% move, these levels offer excellent value for exporters in particular to reduce the currency risk in their business.
 Written by Lee Evans, Head of FX Trading, Bank of Ireland. Information correct as at 25.01.19 at 12.15pm.

22 January 2019 – Watch our Bank of Ireland experts Jennifer Howett, Lee Evans and Pierce Butler give a clearer picture to businesses on the latest Brexit news and answer the key questions customers are asking about Brexit preparations. Watch here.

22 January 2019 – What will happen to €/£ outlook under different Brexit scenarios? Read our expert’s latest views Read more.

17 January 2019 – Bank of Ireland Global Markets Boosts Foreign Exchange facility to €50 Million We have increased our unsecured FX facility to €50million to meet customer demand. This supports businesses in proactively managing FX and interest rate risk, fixing their foreign exchange exposure at competitive market rates on the day they agree a contract with a customer or supplier, protecting their profit margins from adverse currency movements. Read more here

Brexit a drag on economy as Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse records the second lowest reading in series’ history. Read more here.

Listen to our experts discuss recent Brexit events and their impact on markets. Listen here.